- Effects from climate change, adaptations and
greenhouse gas reduction at 2050

Abstract:

Terrestrial ecosystems are considered as carbon sinks that may mitigate the impacts of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]). However, it is not clear what their carbon sink capacity will be under extreme climatic conditions. In this study, we used long-term (1998–2013) data from a C3 grassland Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment in Germany to study the combined effects of elevated [CO2] and extreme climatic events (ECEs) on aboveground biomass production. CO2 fertilization effect (CFE), which represents the promoted plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency under higher [CO2], was quantiffied by calculating the relative differences in biomass between the plots with [CO2] enrichment and the plots with ambient [CO2]. Down-regulated CFEs were found when ECEs occurred during the growing season, and the CFE decreases were statistically significant with p well below 0.05 (t-test). Of all the observed ECEs, the strongest CFE decreases were associated with intensive and prolonged heat waves. These findings suggest that more frequent ECEs in the future are likely to restrict the mitigatory effects of C3 grassland ecosystems, leading to an accelerated warming trend. To reduce the uncertainties of future projections, the atmosphere-vegetation interactions, especially the ECEs effects, are emphasized and need to be better accounted.

Abstract:

Temperate grasslands play globally an important role, for example, for biodiversity conservation, livestock forage production, and carbon storage. The latter two are primarily controlled by biomass production, which is assumed to decrease with lower amounts and higher variability of precipitation, while increasing air temperature might either foster or suppress biomass production. Additionally, a higher atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) is supposed to increase biomass productivity either by directly stimulating photosynthesis or indirectly by inducing water savings (CO2 fertilization effect). Consequently, future biomass productivity is controlled by the partially contrasting effects of changing climatic conditions and [CO2], which to date are only marginally understood. This results in high uncertainties of future biomass production and carbon storage estimates. Consequently, this study aims at statistically estimating mid-21st century grassland aboveground biomass (AGB) based on 18 years of data (1998–2015) from a free air carbon enrichment experiment. We found that lower precipitation totals and a higher precipitation variability reduced AGB. Under drier conditions accompanied by increasing air temperature, AGB further decreased. Here AGB under elevated [CO2] was partly even lower compared to AGB under ambient [CO2], probably because elevated [CO2] reduced evaporative cooling of plants, increasing heat stress. This indicates a higher susceptibility of AGB to increased air temperature under future atmospheric [CO2]. Since climate models for Central Europe project increasing air temperature and decreasing total summer precipitation associated with an increasing variability, our results suggest that grassland summer AGB will be reduced in the future, contradicting the widely expected positive yield anomalies from increasing [CO2].

Abstract:

The presentation of the Working package B2 at the general assembly of the FACE2FACE consortium at the 4th of July, 2017.